Honduran Coffee and Migration: A Two-Way Relationship
Author: Matthew M. Ireland
Photo Credit: Annik Brar
Introduction
Over the past decade, Honduras has experienced a marked increase in migration, stemming from a combination of drivers that include, among others, economic insecurity and shocks from climate change.[1] Many studies focus on these ‘push’ factors at a broader regional level, while placing less emphasis on their impact on rural economic populations and follow-on migration patterns. As the world’s fourth-largest coffee exporter, Honduras relies on smallholder farms for 95% of its production.[2] With approximately 120,000 farmers and over 1.1 million adjacent workers, the Honduran coffee industry makes up roughly 28% of the country’s entire labor force.[3] However, despite its importance to the Honduran economy, the coffee sector has become increasingly unstable due to low wages, repeated stresses to the climate, and widening gaps between production costs and revenue.[4] As such, instability in Honduras’s coffee sector provides a clear case for understanding the drivers of migration and household decisions to relocate.
At the same time, migration also impacts the Honduran coffee sector, especially in rural coffee-growing regions. High migration levels of youth and working age populations contribute to labor shortages and rising coffee production costs.[5] Remittance transactions now make up more than 25% of Honduras’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), increase household income, and incentivize continued migration from coffee-growing communities.[6] Families in rural regions use migration and remittances as one method to manage household risk at the expense of shifting labor further away from the coffee sector.[7] Patterns like these generate a feedback loop where agricultural decline drives migration, and migration further accelerates this decline through reduced labor and an aging farmer population.
Although the U.S. government, development banks, and nongovernment organizations have led investment and agricultural efforts in Honduras, they inadequately address the reinforcing relationship between migration and stresses to rural, coffee-producing families. Previous and existing interventions emphasize climate change mitigation (e.g. emission reduction) or strengthening agricultural governance, but few of them fully address household-level, root causes of migration.[8] The decline of Honduras’s coffee sector and the country’s migration patterns are mutually reinforcing events that existing policies inadequately address. By examining and understanding this two-way relationship, policymakers can create migration strategies that support the resilience of rural communities, reduce ‘push’ factors of migration, and provide a starting point for comparable, climate-vulnerable agricultural communities.
The Honduran Coffee Sector’s Impact on Migration
Climate-related shocks are some of the most immediate and impactful forces that affect Honduran coffee households, and they directly increase intentions to migrate. Previous outbreaks of coffee leaf rust (CLR) throughout the region have devastated coffee harvest yields and forced households into crisis. For example, a 2012-2013 CLR outbreak in Honduras caused a loss of approximately 2.2 million coffee bags: a 31% annual crop loss that led to a declared state of emergency and the most severe outbreak in Central America at the time.[9] Accounts throughout the greater region describe farmers deciding to relocate after multiple CLR-induced losses decimated harvests.[10] Honduran coffee farmers are pushed to migrate when conditions like this result in unsustainable income. Shocks like CLR occur in parallel with increasingly unpredictable climate events in the Central American ‘dry corridor,’ named for its unpredictable rainfall, where many Honduran coffee farms are located. The 2020 hurricanes Eta and Lola caused $2.16 billion of damage to Honduran agricultural infrastructure and drove acute surges of climate migrants.[11] Natural disasters accelerate migration pressures by causing households to flee and reducing their ability to recover. When climate events wipe out the vulnerable lots that coffee farmers rely on, they turn to migration as a way to survive.
Beyond acute climate shocks, gradual climate change also undermines the long-term prospects of Honduran coffee farmers. Climate research shows that essential coffee-growing areas in Honduras are changing into less stable, hotter environments, posing significant risk to future yields. The same research predicts that much of the coffee-growing ecological zones in Honduras will become unsuitable by the 2050’s if climate patterns remain unchanged.[12] As rural coffee communities perceive diminishing opportunity in coffee agriculture, many will probably make the preemptive decision to migrate instead of waiting for further deterioration.
Aforementioned pressures from climate change interact with chronic uncertainty in Honduras’s coffee industry. The wages of farmers are far below determined benchmarks for living wage, leaving coffee-farming families unable to meet basic needs. One survey conducted by the Coffee Science Foundation estimates that Honduran coffee workers earn 40-60% of what a household requires for dignified living standards.[13] Low wages drive poverty, food insecurity, and increased susceptibility to climate shocks. Food-insecure families, including those in Honduras, are significantly more likely to express intentions to migrate.[14] For smallholder farmers, climate-induced instability also worsens profit margins. Labor alone makes up 69-75% of production costs for Honduran coffee farms, and continues to climb, while prices remain relatively stagnant.[15] When this structural economic friction combines with climate shocks, farmers find the sector unsuitable and turn to migration. Ultimately, previous migration patterns from Honduras show that agricultural crises trigger outward migration. One report from the Migration Policy Institute (MPI) explains how migration is “. . . by far the most common way that farmers in coffee-producing regions, in particular, respond to low coffee prices.”[16] When revenue from coffee sales collapse due to climate event, fungus, or structural market inequities, migration follows as a result.
Outside of crisis, the labor structure of the Honduran coffee industry creates persistent inequities and pressure to migrate. Labor related to coffee growth, harvest, and processing is seasonal, rarely providing workers with stable benefits, protections, or contracts. The United Nation’s International Labor Organization (ILO) captures and describes unreliable employment patterns in Honduras’s coffee-growing communities.[17] For Honduran coffee farmers, migration is not only an opportunity to attain higher wages, but also to pursue predictable income and stability. Global crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic also had an effect on the same labor market. Pandemic-related lockdowns stalled much of Honduras’s agricultural activity, leaving many rural workers without income for up to nine months and increasing extreme poverty estimates from 42 to 64%.[18] When the opportunity for work disappears from their sight, coffee farmers push toward migration. How workers perceive their future in the coffee industry also contributes to their decision. MPI studies have found that Honduran workers point to unstable work and lack of upward mobility as main reasons for wanting to relocate.[19] A reinforcing report from the MPI also adds that during a 2021 survey, 61% of Honduran millennials expressed a desire to migrate, driven by unemployment and economic uncertainty, in combination with other factors like local corruption.[20]
Collectively, climate impacts, declining income, and labor uncertainty create pressures that make remaining in coffee unsupportable for many rural households. These pressures do not work independent of one another; climate shocks exacerbate and reveal structural economic factors and weaken the labor market. Migration stands out as a reliable strategy for coffee farmers to manage risk.
Migration’s Impact on the Honduran Coffee Sector
As the decline of the Honduran coffee sector pushes households towards migration, migration also feeds back into the coffee sector by reshaping its labor supply, household economies, and the local communities that remain behind. First, migration has changed the coffee workforce of Honduras through the departure of youth and leaving behind an aging population of coffee farmers. Young people in the coffee value chain increasingly reject agricultural work, reluctant to face the high-risk, low-reward economic challenges of their older family members.[21] As young and working age adults migrate to seek opportunities elsewhere, farms are left without the continuity and follow-on generational numbers needed to sustain production without adaptation. The departure of these working-age migrants also contributes to labor shortages during the most important, seasonal phases of coffee production. The World Bank notes Honduran labor scarcity as a binding constraint that prevents agricultural producers from achieving better outcomes, taking harvest delays and costs into account.[22] Similarly, the ILO reports inadequate labor during essential phases of coffee production, linking low labor to harvest delays and lower yields.[23] When migration pulls people away from the coffee labor force, it impacts how well the coffee industry performs.
Labor shortages are only one aspect of migration’s influence. Remittances sent back to Honduras by those who have migrated also have a significant effect on rural, coffee-growing households. Remittances provide an option for predictable revenue that financially assists rural households, offsetting losses from structural income inequities and providing a buffer to recover from shocks. Remittances make up more than a quarter of Honduras’s GDP and are especially significant in Honduras’s more rural regions.[24] One MPI report on remittances in Honduras emphasizes that remittances emerge as a critical tool for Honduran coffee farmers to adjust to erratic prices and economic uncertainty.[25] These money transfers facilitated through Honduran migrants help families avoid debt. Remittances also reshape rural household economic strategies by providing income independent of agriculture. The same MPI report also notes how overreliance on remittances can reduce incentives to remain in coffee production and shift labor further away from the industry.[26] For many families, remittance inflows can change coffee production from a livelihood into a more supplemental activity.
Beyond labor and household finances, migration also affects the community-level and social dynamics of rural Honduran coffee regions. Migration changes the social and institutional environment of rural coffee communities by weakening organizations like local coffee producer cooperatives. These cooperative organizations experience declining participation, partially driven by flows of outward migrants.[27] With less participants, cooperatives lose negotiating power, and collective action for coffee farming communities becomes more difficult. In this sense, migration can weaken the ability of rural coffee communities to collectively advocate for their needs and respond to climate and market events. Though less tangible, at the community level, migration most likely chips away at intergenerational knowledge and continuity of best agricultural practices. Ultimately, migration has become part of long-term rural household strategies, influencing their decisions about where to allocate labor, diversify income (e.g. remittances) and manage risk. Across generations, as migration becomes the norm, agricultural labor gradually shifts to non-farming activities, contributing to a sustained, slow decline in the rural coffee sector.
Conclusion
The relationship between Honduras’s coffee sector and migration is mutually reinforcing. As acute climate events, gradual climate impacts, economic volatility, and unstable work conditions impact the livelihoods of rural smallholders, workers turn to migration as a survival strategy. As migration accelerates, the coffee sector can over-rely on remittances and lose the labor, institutional cooperation, and intergenerational continuity it depends on. The Honduran coffee industry is central to the discussion of migration because of its significant share in the country’s economy, as well as its role in the livelihoods of millions. When the coffee community comes under stress, those pressures translate into difficult household decisions and follow-on migration events. Ultimately, whether Honduras’s coffee industry is salvageable is less clear, and that uncertainty is why migration dynamics are so important to consider. The country’s coffee industry faces difficult challenges including climate suitability, rising production costs, and generational shifts away from rural livelihoods. These push factors do not translate into inevitable collapse of the Honduran coffee industry, but they suggest the industry’s future will rely more on effectively managing its transition. Policy that stabilizes rural employment, considers household intentions, considers both climate adaptation and mitigation, and responsibly allocates income from remittances can reduce the pressures that push families out of the coffee sector. Implementations like these can create decision space for long-term planners as they work to address the challenges Honduran coffee communities face.
Ultimately, migration is not separate from the Honduran coffee sector’s challenges; it is a critical part of how rural, coffee-producing households manage risk and uncertainty. Policy that acknowledges this dynamic, rather than treating migration as its own issue, will be more likely to improve rural communities that face environmental and economic drivers. Whether coffee remains a viable option for rural Honduran communities will depend on how well this complex issue is addressed in the coming decades.
Footnotes
[1] Hallock, “Intersecting Crises: Pandemic and Hurricanes Add to Political Instability Driving Migration from Honduras.”
[2] World Coffee Research, Annual Report 2021, Ensuring the Future of Coffee, 6.
[3] International Labour Organization, Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras; World Bank Group, “Labor Force, Total - Honduras.”
[4] Carpio et al., Specialty Coffee Production Costs: The Case of Honduras and El Salvador, 8–12.
[5] International Labour Organization, Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras, 30.
[6] McAuliffe, World Migration Report 2024; Reichman, “Honduras: The Perils of Remittance Dependence and Clandestine Migration.”
[7] Reichman, “Honduras: The Perils of Remittance Dependence and Clandestine Migration.”
[8] Washington Office on Latin America, “Stopping U.S. Assistance to Central America Is Counterproductive and Misinformed.”
[9] de Melo Virginio Fiho and Domian, Prevention and Control of Coffee Leaf Rust: Handbook of Best Practices for Extension Agents and Facilitators, 14–15.
[10] Salvadore, “As Climate Effects Hit Coffee Crops, Guatemalan Farmers Become Migrants.”
[11] Meyer, “Climate Change Disasters Point to Urgent Need to Protect Climate Refugees.”
[12] Bunn et al., “Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.”
[13] Carpio et al., Specialty Coffee Production Costs: The Case of Honduras and El Salvador.
[14] International Organization for Migration, Understanding the Adverse Drivers and Implications of Migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras.
[15] Carpio et al., Specialty Coffee Production Costs: The Case of Honduras and El Salvador.
[16] Reichman, “Honduras: The Perils of Remittance Dependence and Clandestine Migration.”
[17] International Labour Organization, Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras.
[18] Hallock, “Intersecting Crises: Pandemic and Hurricanes Add to Political Instability Driving Migration from Honduras.”
[19] Soto et al., Migration Narratives in Northern Central America: How Competing Stories Shape Policy and Public Opinion in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador.
[20] Hallock, “Intersecting Crises: Pandemic and Hurricanes Add to Political Instability Driving Migration from Honduras.”
[21] Oyier, Youth Engagement, Gender Dynamics, and Climate Resilience in the Coffee Value Chain of Honduras.
[22] International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group, Creating Markets in Honduras: Fostering Private Sector Development for a Resilient and Inclusive Economy.
[23] International Labour Organization, Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras.
[24] McAuliffe, World Migration Report 2024.
[25] Reichman, “Honduras: The Perils of Remittance Dependence and Clandestine Migration.”
[26] Ibid.
[27] International Labour Organization, Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras.
Bibliography
Bunn, Christian, Peter Läderach, Juan Guillermo Pérez Jimenez, Christophe Montagnon, and Timothy Schilling. “Multiclass Classification of Agro-Ecological Zones for Arabica Coffee: An Improved Understanding of the Impacts of Climate Change.” PLoS One (United States) 10, no. 10 (n.d.): e0140490.
Carpio, Carlos, Luis Sandoval, Sarahi Morales, Darnell Carranza, Victor Hernandez, and J. Mario Munoz. Specialty Coffee Production Costs: The Case of Honduras and El Salvador. Coffee Science Foundation, 2025. https://coffeescience.foundation/news-index/specialty-coffee-production-costs-the-case-of-honduras-and-el-salvador.
Hallock, Ben Corson and Jeffrey. “Intersecting Crises: Pandemic and Hurricanes Add to Political Instability Driving Migration from Honduras.” Migrationpolicy.Org, June 9, 2021. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/pandemic-hurricanes-political-instability-migration-honduras.
International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group. Creating Markets in Honduras: Fostering Private Sector Development for a Resilient and Inclusive Economy. International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group, 2022. https://www.ifc.org/en/insights-reports/2022/cpsd-honduras.
International Labour Organization, ed. Mapping the Coffee Value Chain in Honduras. International Labour Organization, 2024. https://www.ilo.org/sites/default/files/2024-07/Honduras_Coffee_Value_Chain_Mapping.pdf.
International Organization for Migration. Understanding the Adverse Drivers and Implications of Migration from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. International Organization for Migration (IOM) and World Food Programme (WFP), 2022. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000139579/download/?_ga=2.233605790.1464441290.1764544797-127320177.1764544797.
McAuliffe, M. World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration (IOM), 2024.
Melo Virginio Fiho, Elias de, and Carlos Astorga Domian. Prevention and Control of Coffee Leaf Rust: Handbook of Best Practices for Extension Agents and Facilitators. Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center (CATIE), 2019. https://worldcoffeeresearch.org/resources/prevention-and-control-of-coffee-leaf-rust.
Meyer, Maureen. “Climate Change Disasters Point to Urgent Need to Protect Climate Refugees.” WOLA, August 13, 2021. https://www.wola.org/analysis/climate-refugees-hurricanes-2021/.
Oyier, Omoneka. Youth Engagement, Gender Dynamics, and Climate Resilience in the Coffee Value Chain of Honduras. Mennonite Economic Development Associates, 2025. https://www.meda.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/Youth-Engagement-Gender-Dynamics-and-Climate-Resilience-in-the-Coffee-Value-Chain-of-Honduras.pdf.
Reichman, Daniel. “Honduras: The Perils of Remittance Dependence and Clandestine Migration.” Migration Policy Institute, April 11, 2013. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/print/4211.
Salvadore, Sarah. “As Climate Effects Hit Coffee Crops, Guatemalan Farmers Become Migrants.” Text. National Catholic Reporter, National Catholic Reporter. Accessed November 30, 2025. https://www.ncronline.org/news/climate-effects-hit-coffee-crops-guatemalan-farmers-become-migrants.
Soto, Ariel G Ruiz, Natalia Banulescu-Bogdan, and Aaron Clark-Ginsberg. Migration Narratives in Northern Central America: How Competing Stories Shape Policy and Public Opinion in Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador. Migration Policy Institute, 2023. https://www.migrationpolicy.org/research/migration-narratives-central-america.
Washington Office on Latin America. “Stopping U.S. Assistance to Central America Is Counterproductive and Misinformed.” WOLA Perspectives, April 9, 2019. https://www.wola.org/analysis/stopping-us-assistance-central-america-counterproductive-misinformed/.
World Bank Group. “Labor Force, Total - Honduras.” 2024. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.IN?locations=HN.
World Coffee Research. Annual Report 2021, Ensuring the Future of Coffee. World Coffee Research, 2021. https://worldcoffeeresearch.org/resources/annual-report-2021.