BY: CYNTHIA ARNSON
This piece is comprised of excerpts from Professor Arnson’s work originally published at the Wilson Center.
Introduction [1]
The Northern Triangle—El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras—has long been characterized by its overlapping crises of governance, violence and insecurity, and lack of economic opportunity. This article explores the impacts of extreme weather events on this region and the efforts of local communities to build resilience in the face of the increasingly brutal impacts of climate change.
In 2022, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that “the countries of Central America consistently rank highest in the world for risks associated with extreme weather,” in which, “devastating hurricanes and floods…alternate with extended periods of drought.” International organizations, such as the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), have played key roles in calling attention to the ways that catastrophic weather events have deepened the socio-economic vulnerability of populations in the Northern Triangle, particularly with respect to agriculture and food security.
The Northern Triangle lies within the Central American Dry Corridor, an ecosystem of dry tropical forest that stretches across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and into southern Mexico, where extended periods of drought alternate with periods of intense rain. The FAO notes that 44 percent of the territory of El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua lies within the Dry Corridor, an area with approximately 11.5 million people, more than half of whom are engaged in agriculture and the small-scale farming of basic food grains. The Dry Corridor experienced five years of consecutive drought from 2015-2019, with devastating effects on commercial agriculture and employment, subsistence farming, and food security. In 2019 alone, the United Nations World Food Program and the FAO reported that drought followed by heavy rains had “destroyed more than half of the maize and bean crops of subsistence farmers,” affecting 2.2 million people and leaving 1.4 million in need of “urgent food assistance.”
In addition to drought and extreme rainfall, hurricanes and tropical storms have pummeled Central America with increasing frequency in recent years. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season broke the record for “the highest number of tropical/ subtropical storms in a single year,” laying bare the effects of warming oceans and air temperatures on storm frequency and intensity.
In November 2020 — compounding the devastating health impacts of COVID-19 — the region was hit by the ferocious back-to-back hurricanes, Eta and Iota. High winds, flooding, and landslides killed scores of people, displaced at least 1.5 million people, and destroyed tens of thousands of homes along with crops and livestock. All told, more than 7.5 million people were affected, according to the International Federation of the Red Cross and insurance companies estimated total damages at $9 billion.
The Importance of Local Actors [2]
Across the Northern Triangle, rural campesino, Indigenous, and Afro-descendant communities are the most vulnerable to climate change due to their dependence on natural resources and/or social vulnerability. Due to socio-ecological pressures, these groups have developed adaptation and resilience strategies at the local level. State policies vis-à-vis economic growth that are rooted in the exploitation of nature, coupled with the disorderly and uncontrolled expansion of cities, hinder climate resilience: of communities, nations, and the entire region. Political, economic, and international actors must support the climate actions of communities, and promote structural changes in ecological, economic, social, and political arenas. Even if communities are the most vulnerable to climate change, they must not bear the principal responsibility for solving the crisis, especially when they face socio-ecological and political conditions that threaten their dignity and very survival.
There must be a more comprehensive vision that moves beyond just greenhouse gas emissions, and accounts for the social, economic, and political factors that produce such emissions and their sociological impacts. Such a vision must legitimize community leaders as central political actors in local, national, and regional decision-making procedures regarding climate change, overcoming the perception of these communities as backward or opposed to development.
To prevent historical power relations from drowning out the voices of Indigenous peoples, Afro-descendants, campesinos, and women, it is necessary to move towards a new model of transformative governance. This means including actors with alternative views of what socio-ecological objectives are desirable and for whose benefit. Transformative governance can lead to resistance, as the focus is on producing fundamental ecological, social, economic, and political change that questions current power hierarchies and development models. The goal is to foster a more equitable, sustainable resilience, based on long-term transformations and the inclusion of voices that historically have been silenced.
El Salvador [3]
In 2021, El Salvador ranked 103rd in the Global Climate Risk Index (GCRI), a measure of the level of exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events between 2000 and 2019.[4] In response, organizations like Catholic Relief Services (CRS) have been quite active in El Salvador, particularly regarding projects integrating soil and water management to increase agricultural yields. Two CRS projects—in the departments of Ahuachapán department and Chalatenango—illuminate the dynamics that facilitate or restrict community participation in local decision making on issues of resilience or adaptation.
Successful projects that have improved the capacity of local farmers to act in an organized fashion and strengthened leadership skills have generated a sense of belonging to the territory. The construction of a common language—through training, information, continuous education, and putting lessons into practice—has been fundamental. Also important has been the scaling up of organizational capacities, beginning with pre-existing organizations in each area and the mapping of actors present in each territory. Such scaling has created new spaces for nurturing transparent and fruitful relationships, transferring technologies and knowledge, influencing programs and plans, and creating value chains for the marketing of produce.
The challenges for achieving sustainable participation are two-fold. For external actors, the challenge for achieving sustainable participation over time is to understand the specific dynamics in each territory with respect to land tenure, natural resource management, pre-existing forms of association, and the exercise of power. For residents of each territory, the challenge is to be open to new ways of farming, caring for the forest, and relating to the environment, as well as include women, youth, and children in decision-making processes through intergenerational dialogue.
In both Ahuachapán and Chalatenango, local farmers and strategic partners have incorporated agricultural knowledge, generated a learning community, and promoted informed participation as the foundation for decision making. Both departments count on an extensive presence of governmental and non-governmental institutions that work on environmental, climate change, and water resource management issues. One key take-away from this inquiry is that actions based on a paternalistic or welfare-oriented (asistencialista) approach, or that are implemented in a disjointed, biased manner without taking into account the specific characteristics of the territories, negatively impact governance in the face of climate change.
El Salvador has made significant progress in strengthening the regulatory and institutional framework that makes it possible to address the effects of climate change in a timely, efficient manner. That said, the economic resources and the capacities of state institutions and, above all, municipalities are insufficient to deliver results of the scale that is needed.
Honduras
The Global Adaptation Initiative Index ranks Honduras 113 out of 185 countries in climate change vulnerability but a far lower rank of 177 out of 192 in readiness or ability to deal with climate change and improve resilience.[5] Thus, while Honduras is exposed to risk, the situation is worsened by low resilience and capacity to deal with climate change, again pointing to low levels of capacity in governance.
When communities achieve solid local governance and capacity, they are better equipped to manage extreme weather events. Correlations between climate interventions and local governance include:
1. Poor Governance Increases Vulnerability. Honduras is more vulnerable to extreme weather events than countries with similar exposure This is partly due to the lack of ability to adapt and cope with such events, which demonstrates how fragility, corruption, and low institutional capacity increase vulnerability. The conditions in the Dry Corridor and the vulnerability to hurricanes have long been known, but Honduras has struggled to develop a comprehensive climate response. Reducing a natural disaster to simply a weather event is a mistake. The “second disaster”—caused by poor disaster management—contributes to the overall catastrophe.
2. Drivers of Vulnerability. Climate change exposes underlying problems with respect to resilience, capacity, and governance. Lempira’s unpredictable rainfall worsens farming conditions, but so do increased production costs or the lack of access to loans, investments, and solutions. In Olancho and the Mosquitia region, the problems of deforestation, illegal logging, drug trafficking, and forest fires have long been rampant. These systemic and criminal issues are beyond the control of small local communities and require a broader governmental response.
3. Inclusive Participation Strengthens Governance. Future climate interventions should involve all relevant local stakeholders, as collaboration with the municipality and community leaders is crucial to ensure ownership and sustainability beyond the duration of a project’s funding. Participation in designing and implementing interventions strengthens local governance, democratic practices, and community-based collective action.
4. Deforestation Due to Lack of Regulation and Governance. The current Xiomara Castro government has launched ambitious forest protection and conservation initiatives in Olancho and the Mosquitia area. These initiatives could be a game changer, but it is still too early to predict long-term effects. The state’s historical inability to control and regulate expansive cattle ranching, illegal logging, drug trafficking, and forest fires also reflects how poor governance, rather than the number of cattle, has been the main problem.
5. The “Social Trap” and Collective Action Problems. The situation in Honduras can be viewed as a “social trap” where political actors struggle to collaborate on needed reforms due to power struggles, mutual distrust, and low capacity for dialogue and consensus-building. While the need for climate solutions is urgent, well-intended projects and reforms carried out too hastily may not have the desired effect or sustainability. A reform strategy emphasizing “deep democratization” might prove more effective through a long-term perspective aimed at building the social foundations for reform, enhancing the capacity of institutions, and empowering communities and civil society to defend their interests.
6. Building Governance through Existing Structures and Co-Creation. Solid local governance structures and democratic practices are not built overnight; they are learned over years of civic engagement. From a donor perspective, more funds might actually reach the communities suffering from extreme climate events if donors are more flexible with bureaucratic requirements. A more community-based approach involving local NGOs, municipalities, and councils with local presence and knowledge would contribute to ownership and sustainability.
7. Urgency Versus Long-Term Solutions. Many civil society and political actors find themselves in a constant crisis mode. When too many issues are urgent and resources are scarce, the result can be too many band-aid solutions. Even if long-term plans are in place, changing circumstances make it hard to stick to any plan, agreement, or timeline. Climate initiatives must balance attending to urgent issues while maintaining stakeholder engagement to build consensus and establish solid agreements.
Guatemala [6]
The Western Highlands are located in the northwestern part of Guatemala and are inhabited mainly by Mam, K’iche’ and Kaqchiquel indigenous populations. More than a third of the region is still covered by pine and/or oak forests.[7] The preservation of these forest stands is strategic: important rivers originate there, serving as important water recharge zones that supply water not only to surrounding communities, but to cities and other parts of the country.[8]
The conservation of biodiversity and forest cover in the upper regions of the Western Highlands are essential for Guatemala’s hydrological equilibrium. Ancestral governance structures have provided one of the main mechanisms for the protection of these areas and constitute a central pillar of climate resilience. In the highlands, the majority of forested areas are on either local government or communal lands. At times, the local governments cede the right to use and manage the forests in their jurisdiction to the communities. Whether this happens or not depends on specific power relations within each territory. Where the communal governance of forests is more consolidated, as in Sololá, Totonicapán and Quetzaltenango, there is less deforestation.
When the indigenous peoples of the highlands administer communal and municipal forests, they do so according to their own ancestral government structures. The communal governance of forests is a central feature of community organization and a source of territorial political power for many indigenous communities of the altiplano. These communal systems have proven to be more efficient and sustainable than those of the state or the private sector; this is because governance is based on rules, culture, and traditional knowledge that establish benefits and collective responsibilities as well as sanctions when responsibilities are not met.
Over the last two decades, the traditional relationship between the Western Highland communities and the forests has been changing. The reasons for this include pressure from environmentalists to transform communal forests into protected areas; the logic of the extractive economy; and the continued expansion of urban areas. These dynamics fail to account for the dependency and socio-ecological connection between communities and the forest; The forest is not only a biophysical space for ecosystem services, but also a social space that binds the life of the community with the territory.
New government cooperation projects and mechanisms to regulate the forestry sector (such as forestry incentive programs) have triggered power struggles between ancestral and local government structures of governance and authority. The struggle is rooted in different conceptions of the territory and its forests. Consolidating these conflicting approaches can allow communities to take advantage of incentives without fear of losing access to the forests, a central part of their identity, history, and political power.
[1] Climate Resilience and Democratic Governance in Central America’s Northern Triangle, pages 8-11
[2] Ibid pages 57-59
[3] Ibid pages 90-93
[4] Ibid page 70
[5] Ibid pages 100-101
[6] Ibid pages 177-179
[7] Ibid page 156
[8] Ibid page 156