BY SHU FUKUYA
Shu Fukuya is a DIA student focusing on international political economy, global financial markets, development finance, emerging markets, and East Asia-Africa relations.
With a population of over 100 million, Ethiopia is one of largest countries in Africa. Despite limited natural resources, the country has attracted significant foreign investment and assistance in the agricultural and manufacturing sectors, which has helped it to maintain an average economic growth rate of 10% from the mid-2000s to 2019. Since 1991, Ethiopia has avoided major ethnic conflicts and made substantial investments in industrialization with the goal of becoming a middle-income nation by 2025. Until 2018, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), led by the Tigre-based armed group known as the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), ruled Ethiopia as the majority party, resulting in relative political stability. However, the appointment of Prime Minister Abiy in 2018 caused political reforms and a power shift, leading to conflict between the federal government and the TPLF. The resulting political instability has suddenly led to a slowdown in economic development and the eruption of a multifaceted humanitarian crisis. From being lauded as a developmental success just a few years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, Ethiopia is now a leading example of sustainable development in crisis.
The conflict in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region in November 2020 was so brutal that U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described it as “ethnic cleansing.” In the two years leading up to the November 2022 ceasefire agreement between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan forces in Pretoria, up to 600,000 people are estimated to have died, half of them from civilian starvation and disease, making it arguably one of the worst conflicts in modern history. No famine has been officially declared in Ethiopia, but the United Nations has reported that 13 million people in the three regions of Afar, Amhara and Tigray are in need of humanitarian assistance. In addition, it is estimated that nearly 500,000 children in Tigray are malnourished. The Tigray conflict has been consistently criticized as a war crime that treats humanitarian aid as a weapon. The Ethiopian government has placed 6 million people under siege by restricting food and medical supplies to Tigray, and both sides have been accused of killing civilians and engaging in sexual violence, illegal shelling, illegal aerial bombardment, and looting.
In November 2022, the Ethiopian and Tigrayan forces reached a ceasefire agreement, although both the agreement itself as well as its implementation plan are half-baked, with many unresolved obstacles remaining on the path to peace. For example, the November 2022 ceasefire agreement does not elaborate on the development of a transitional policy framework to ensure accountability, truth, reconciliation, and healing. However, this does not mean that the parties involved in this conflict are not accountable. The Ethiopian government’s efforts to steadily implement the agreement and gain the support of the international community are a prerequisite for sustainable peace and the continuation of pre-conflict development. Still, the fact that Eritrea is not mentioned at all in the ceasefire agreement is another cause for concern. Eritrea has long been hostile to the TPLF in border disputes, and if the TPLF were to disarm, there would seem to be an incentive for Eritrean troops to return to their country. Unfortunately, in practice, this is not so easy. The possibility that Eritrea's President Isaias Afewerki, who fought a bloody war for control of the Horn of Africa in a border dispute with the TPLF-led Ethiopian government in the late 1998 to 2000, aims to completely eradicate the TPLF cannot be ruled out. Thus, Eritrea’s lack of inclusion in the 2022 peace agreement could pose further challenges to achieving lasting peace.
More pressure that could pose a threat to sustainable peace and further development in Ethiopia comes from the international stage, where there is not a consensus among partner countries on how to provide post-war reconstruction and development assistance to Ethiopia. The Ethiopian government, led by Prime Minister Abiy, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, continues to refuse humanitarian aid from the United Nations. Western countries have taken a tough stance against the Ethiopian government, with a senior U.S. State Department officials willing to use economic sanctions if the ceasefire agreement between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF is not successfully implemented. Meanwhile, Mark Lowcock, former Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, said that when the UN Security Council debated whether to declare a famine in Ethiopia in the summer of 2021, Russia and China took the position that it would be interference in their internal affairs. According to Lowcock, the Ethiopian government also wanted to starve the Tigrayan people and was afraid of a UN famine declaration because of a huge global backlash.
Ethiopia’s economy is also struggling: after the spread of COVID-19 and the outbreak of the Tigrayan conflict, many development projects have not progressed. In addition, the spread of COVID-19 has made it difficult for the country to repay its sovereign debt. Ethiopia received a total of $800 million in debt relief under the Debt Service Suspension Initiative, which provides a rapid and coordinated response to liquidity problems in low-income countries. Yet, due to the significant devaluation of the Ethiopian birr against the US dollar, its real debt burden has increased by 35% from 2020 to 2022. The country is also suffering from inflation due to external shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In a country where conflict has arisen, the path ahead for development and reconstruction will be long and challenging. External partners have a vested interest in the implementation of the ceasefire agreement, as instability in Ethiopia could impact neighboring nations. While a peace agreement is crucial for ending the conflict, the real challenge lies in disarming, demobilizing, and reintegrating combatants in a multi-ethnic country with a history of conflict. Providing education, vocational training, and employment to rebel groups like the TPLF will be important for achieving peace, but it requires technical assistance and funding from external partners. Furthermore, the withdrawal of Eritrean troops is vital for establishing stability in Ethiopia. Without preventing the political collapse of Ethiopia, sustainable development is not possible. International onlookers may consider these prerequisites for sustainable peace, pursuing bilateral and multilateral options to establish a stronger foundation for peace and sustainable development in Ethiopia moving forward.
PHOTO CREDIT: Keyi Tang, 2019/20 Photo Contest Submission